It is easy to forget that the effects of Actual Global Warming are not just warmer average temperatures. The real threat is extreme weather situations becoming more frequent, more powerful and more likely to cause more damage.

Speaking at the MD of Bighorn’s Living in the Natural Environment speakers series earlier this month, Dave Sauchyn with the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative discussed the likely effects that climate change may bring to Alberta. In the prairies, the extreme weather situations could include floods and droughts, tornadoes and lighting storms and in the Rockies, flash floods and mudslides are also a potential danger.

“The big issue is not the averages, but how the extremes will change. The problem is not warming, it is the climate extremes. The big question is not how much warmer will it be in winter, but when are we going to get the next 25-year drought, because it is coming.”

Sauchyn knows the climate is changing, but also knows that is always has been. Some warming is natural. Over the past 150 years, that natural trend can be seen in the temperature records data. However, in the last 30 years, there is difference between the warming that would be expected to occur naturally and the temperatures observed.

“If you look at the entire period going back to 1975, there is a very clear and quite dramatic increase in global temperature. Climate change is a trend, it is a tendency, it is not what is happening today, this winter or the last couple of years. It is what has been happening the last 150 years and what we expect to occur over the next century.”

The discrepancy occurring over the past 30 years has been put through various models and the only explanation for it is the increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Whether the nations of the world actually acknowledge and/or take action on greenhouse gas levels or not, societies the world over are going to have to adapt to a changing climate and the extreme events that will accompany it.

“If you think we have had warming already, wait until you see the warming we expect over the next century, depending of course on the amount of greenhouse gases we expect people to produce. It would not be possible for us to be here today if we did not adapt, but we have to adapt even more to sustain our economy and communities with a changed climate.”

I think a lot of things are to blame for this. Mostly it’s down to politicians who have been warning us about climate change for years but have in reality done nothing about it. It’s all well and good trying to spread awareness of the threats of climate change that we all face, but everyone is aware of it now. Continuing to spread awareness without actually doing anything about it is just making people fed up and leading to more people choosing to falsely believe that global warming is just a natural cycle or that it has not been impacted by human emissions.

Of course sceptical opinion its being helped by oil companies spreading propaganda and funding fake scientists to dismiss the greenhouse effect, picking small inaccurate truths and manipulating them to use as “evidence global warming is not man made”. Their argument is helped further when governments exaggerate predictions of climate change to make people take it seriously. Both of these schemes are wrong and should be ended now.

So forget what you have been told, here are the facts behind climate change. Read them and make up your own mind.

• The world is warming. Average global temperatures have increased by 0.74C over the past 100 years and by 0.6C in the 100 years before that.
• There is a parallel trend of rising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere with rising temperatures. CO2 levels in the atmosphere have risen from 280 parts per million (ppm) in pre industrial times to 387ppm today. Methane levels have also risen from 700 parts per billion to 1,745 parts per billion. Today’s levels of these greenhouse gases are the highest for at least 650,000 years.
• The worlds climate can vary naturally. The Earth’s orbit, changes in the intensity of the Sun, volcanic eruptions, atmospheric pollution and natural variations such as El Nino can all impact atmospheric temperatures.
• Evidence of the past climate shows that rising greenhouse gas levels have been followed by warming. In the past decade, scientists have also established that it is impossible to account for recent observed changes in global temperatures unless human activities have had an impact. Computer models of the Earth’s climate agree that natural variation can explain only a part of recent warming. Only if man made greenhouse gases are included do the models replicate what has actually happened.
• The warmest year on record was 1998. This was in part due to a strong El Nino which has a heating effect. Since then temperatures have stabilised but at a very high level. The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred after 1997.
• Natural climate variations mean that there will be periods of temperature stability even when the overall temperature trend rises. The the stabilising temperatures of the last decade are not a sign that global warming has stopped.A study led by Jeff Knight and Peter Stott, of the Met Office, found that such hiatuses occur relatively often during periods of warming, and aren’t inconsistent with the upward trend.
• Arctic sea ice is in long term decline.  In 2007 a record low of 39.2% less ice than the 1979-2001 average was recorded.There is considerable natural variation in ice extent from year to year, but the overall trend is towards shrinkage. Models generally predict that the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer by 2060 to 2080, though some recent estimates have suggested this could happen more quickly.

When discussing climate change please remember that the discussion on whether man made global warming is happening or not has ended. It’s not for us the public to decide whether we believe scientific proof or not, unfortunately our opinion has no impact on the truth. What we can impact is what we do to prevent it. Now we must focus our efforts on working together to prevent dangerous warming of or climate and secure a safe sustainable future.

Click here to see part 1

BBC News has just posted an interesting article detailing a “History Of Climate Change” which covers some more milestones in the climate change story.

In 1824 a French physicist is the first person to discover the “greenhouse effect” that is so publicly spoken of today.

It wasn’t until 1896 when a Swedish chemist concluded that the coal burning of the industrial age would contribute to the greenhouse effect, predicting his research would be useful for future generations. His predictions of temperature increase in-line with CO2 emissions were not far off those of today’s climate models.

In 1938 the first direct evidence of global warming was recorded, as temperatures we found to have increased over the previous century in line with CO2 emissions. At the time it was widely dismissed that emissions caused the warming.

In the 1950’s the US developed new world leading equipment in the field and began researching the climate. Researches not only concluded that CO2 concentrations were rising, but that a doubling of CO2 concentrations would increase temperatures by 3-4 degrees Centigrade. They also discovered that seawater would not absorb the additional CO2 in the atmosphere as many had predicted. US oceanographer Roger Revelle then claims “Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment…”

Little is done until the 1970’s when the UN hosts its first Environment conference, but climate change doesn’t appear on the agenda. Finally in 1975 a US scientist thrusts the term “global warming” into the public domain, making it the title of his scientific paper. A further 13 years latter in 1988 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is formed to collate evidence and establish the threat of climate change. 2 years later the IPCC publish their first report, concluding that global warming is happening, and that it is a direct result of man made fossil fuel emissions.

2009 and over 100 years after the discovery that increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere causes our climate to warm, still we have done nothing to stop it. Still people argue whether or not it actually exists. Still politicians wont except that we have built the world on unsustainable infrastructure that will soon be over-populated, with dwindling resources and a dangerous warming climate.

The theory behind the global warming causing climate change first started to hit the press in the 1960’s. Using Google’s news search tool, you can actually look for the stories that are published online by date yourself. Here are some highlights:

The Virgin Island Daily News – Feb 18th 1970

In a small section on page 7 titled “Other Views” we have a brief mention of global warming. It states that scientists are warning that pollution could alter the earth’s climate. However it claims that scientists are split, half believing it will cause a global warming effect, and half believing it will lead to a new ice age. Theories being that gasses would either reflect the suns radiation causing cooling, or trap it causing warming.

So until the scientists come up with new ideas, we can look forward to living in a global hothouse or freezing to death. In the meantime, we had all better get busy and do something effective about pollution.

The Blade – June 12th 1979

This article reports that Carbon Dioxide levels are rising in the atmosphere, and that it could lead to a global warming trend. It already mentions the “green house effect” and the fear that climate change could melt the polar ice caps. It claims Carbon Dioxide levels in the atmosphere were 335 ppm in 1978 and predicts that levels could reach 600 ppm between 2025 and 2075. That, they predicted, would cause 2.7 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit of warming (that’s 1.5 to 3 degrees C). CO2 levels are now thought to be 385 ppm

Interestingly however, they don’t seem that worried about the polar ice caps.

But it would take perhaps 1,000 years of unusually warm climate to cause substantial melting of the polar ice caps

However a New York Times article from the same year reports that climatologists were warning that newborns could live to a time when the north pole will have melted due to climate change.

New York Times – October 19th 1981

A whole article, with the title “EVIDENCE IS FOUND OF WARMING TREND”. Research showed evidence for the first time that “carbon dioxide pollution is causing a potentially dangerous warming of the earth’s climate”. This story was covered in most newspapers.

The Courier – July 20 1986

“Global Warming trend could cost billions”. The title of an article which is more informative and precise than most of the crap you can read in nowadays press, showing concerns of food and water shortages and crop degradation, as well as predicting that climate change could cost “as much as $200 billion to adjust to irrigation patterns alone”.

So it seems that we have not only known of the cause and effects of climate change for nearly 30 years, we have done nothing about it. Most of these predictions have been fairly accurate, so surely appropriate action could easily have been decided upon and taken. Apparently not. In-fact, despite 30 years of proof and research, we are still arguing about whether it exists. With statistics like that, climate change seems inevitable, unless we get smart and get smart now.

In part 2 see the history of climate change in scientific discovery.

Click Here For Part 2 of the History of Climate Change

Pic: http://animalnewyork.com/

Kenya has a delicate climate. Already so hot, that further increase in temperature can throw whole ecosystems out of balance. An epic drought has been cast upon countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda. This in turn has caused a further life threatening humanitarian crisis. The severe drought, that now occurs year on year, has lead to severe shortages of not only water, but food and livestock too. It is estimated that 23 Million people are threatened by the crisis.

Kenya drought has been especially damaging.  In some regions lack of rain has destroyed whole harvests. Many people depending on livestock have also struggled to keep them alive with no water to feed them. Kenya drought and the food shortage has forced the price of food beyond that of what most families can afford.

If the drought continues we will not be able to raise any animals as there will be no pasture or water. So we will have no money to send our children to school. If we can’t get money from raising animals we don’t know what else we can do.

UK based Charity Oxfam have launched and emergency appeal for £9.5 million in donations to help those suffering from Kenya drought and the food crisis in East Africa. The charity have made themselves synonymous with helping those impacted by climate change throughout this year with there “Here and Now” campaign, aimed to highlight the fact that poorer countries are already suffering at the hands of climate change and the need to act here and now.

Money. You would think we would have run out of it by now after the dreadful year we have had. But the truth is the developed world has lots of it. In most cases it’s because of one thing. Fuel. Fossil fuels to be exact. The economic powerhouses of the last century became so because of their discovery, cultivation, use and export of oil, gas and coal.

Towards the end of the century it became apparent that the earth was warming. Gas emitted from burning these fuels, such as carbon dioxide, have a “greenhouse effect” on our atmosphere, trapping heat and causing “global warming”. The Industrial age, fueled by these fossil fuels, developed wealthy nations in North America and Western Europe. A new civilisation was born and a new quality of life reigned, whilst poorer third world countries were left in the dark.

Only over the past decades has poorer nations began to catch up with the developed world. These developing nations relying as their developed counterparts did on fossil fuels to power their industry, and build their future. But the last decade has seen them face new challenges.

A warming world is a more dangerous world. Climate change has become a reality in the hotter parts of the world. These already warm climates are home mostly to these developing nations. As climate change is a result of emissions from the use of fossil fuels, that surely means the nations that got rich from using them are responsible for the outcome. It is therefor unfortunate and unjust that as climate change begins to effect our world, the first countries to suffer are the poorer developing nations that have not reaped the benefits of the fuels that caused it.

2009 sets the stage for the most important meeting on climate change in history. Already an estimated 300,000 people are loosing there lives every year in climate changes related disasters, and nearly 300 Million are directly effected. 20 Million people are threatened yearly by Bangladesh floods alone. The Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen must reach a decision on how to deal with the issue of the impact of climate change on poorer nations.

The UN estimates that poor nations will need around $100 Billion (£60 Billion) to adapt to climate change. This should come from developed nations. 40% of the money is aimed to come from a carbon trading scheme that is supposed to emerge from the summit.

The European Commission believes $2 Billion – $15 Billion each year is a fair share for the EU to give to poorer nations. The commission believes that “industrialised nations and economically more advanced developing countries” will have to provide $22-50bn per year.

Will these countries step up and put the lives of other people before their own economies? After all the USA managed to fund their own banks with over $1 trillion in the last year, more than enough to end world hunger.

In all failure to reach a fair deal for aid to developing nations hit by climate change would be a sad day for humanity. For too long politicians have prioritised their economies over human lives and well, just about everything. It’s time for developed nations to accept their responsibility for climate change, and remember that people come first.

The research by the Centre for Environmental and Geographic Information Services in Bangladesh predicts that sea water could reach far inland, as many rivers are surrounded by low lying flood plains. As well as displacing those living in these areas, it would make it hard to cultivate such basic foods as rice.

The research comes as the Bangladesh Government appeals for £3 billion in aid over the next five years to combat climate change in the region. The study suggest that a surprisingly small amount of land will be permanently lost to rising sea levels, but perhaps the bigger threat is repeated Bangladesh floods every monsoon season, especially in the south west region.

A senior scientist on the study claims sea water could cause havoc for rice production in Bangladesh’s poorest regions.

“These are very poor people, and vulnerable. For four months they’ll have nowhere to work, So people will migrate to the cities for jobs, because of the uncomfortable situation with sea level rise. We are talking about 20 million people.”

According to Bangladesh monitoring stations, there has been an average of 5mm sea level rise per year for the past 30 years. Nearly half of the rice produced in Bangladesh is so call “monsoon” rice, much of which is grown in the areas most vulnerable to Bangladesh floods.

Bangladesh has been listed as one of the countries vulnerable to “extreme risk” from climate change over the next 100 years.

Here is a video from BBC News on possible solutions to Bangladesh floods, and how the people could adapt to climate change. Britain’s Department for International Development is sponsoring farmers with new ideas such as gardens that float, and cultivating crabs and ducks instead of crops and chickens.

Satellite data shows that the glacier in west Antarctica is now loosing 16 meters of surface ice per year. Worse still, measurements show that the glacier has lowered by as much as 90 meters since 1994, which has serious implications for sea-level rise.

Calculations based on the rate of melting 15 years ago had suggested the glacier would last for 600 years. But the new data based on current levels of climate change points to a lifespan for the vast ice stream of only another 100 years. This will likely have a knock on effect, causing further climate change around the globe.

The ice is melting fastest in the centre of the glacier, which is sparking fears in scientists that the glacier may break up and effect the ice sheet further inland. Professor Andrew Shepherd of Leeds University claims that melted water from the centre alone would increase global sea levels by 3cm.

“But the ice trapped behind it is about 20-30cm of sea level rise and as soon as we destabilise or remove the middle of the glacier we don’t know really know what’s going to happen to the ice behind it. This is unprecedented in this area of Antarctica. We’ve known that it’s been out of balance for some time, but nothing in the natural world is lost at an accelerating exponential rate like this glacier.”

The news comes as research in the Arctic is finding evidence of dramatic climate changes. Researchers on board a Greenpeace vessel have been studying the northwestern part of Greenland.

“The science community has been surprised by how sensitive these large glaciers are to climate warming. First it was the glaciers in south Greenland and now as we move further north in Greenland we find retreat at major glaciers. It’s like removing a cork from a bottle.” Claims Professor Jason Box of the study.

Scientists have found that groundwater levels in northern India have been declining by as much as one foot per year over the past decade. Researchers concluded the loss is almost entirely due to human activity. The findings were published two days after an Indian government report warning of a potential water crisis.

About a quarter of India is experiencing drought conditions, as the monsoon rains have been weaker and later than usual. A welcome change for those usually victims of Bangladesh floods but the lack of water is set to effect more people. However, NASA say more than 26 cubic miles of groundwater disappeared between 2002 and 2008, and that the loss is “almost entirely due to human activity”.

The finding is based on data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), a pair of satellites that sense changes in Earth’s gravity field and associated mass distribution, including water masses stored above or below Earth’s surface.

“Using GRACE satellite observations, we can observe and monitor water storage changes in critical areas of the world, from one month to the next, without leaving our desks” Isabella Velicogna of NASA

Climate change is threatening California, one of America’s biggest polluting States, as hotter weather will cause havoc and threaten low lying areas as sea levels rise, a new report claims. The report warns that rising temperatures over the next few decades will lead to more heatwaves, wildfires, droughts and floods. Over the last century in California, the sea level has risen by 7 inches, average temperatures have increased, spring snow melts earlier in the year, and there are hotter days and fewer cold nights.

Even if a global effort is made to curb carbon emissions, the report claims California needs to start preparing for rising sea levels, hotter weather and other effects of climate change. It encourages local communities to rethink future development in low-lying coastal areas, reinforce levees that protect flood prone areas and conserve already strapped water supplies in the most highly populated US state.

The report was compiled after the governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, directed agencies in November to devise a state climate strategy. It comes three years after the Republican governor signed California’s landmark global warming law requiring the state to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 2020.

Many states are facing similar problems caused by climate change over the coming decades, with water shortages set to be a major issue across the country. Most countries have focused on cutting greenhouse gases in the future, but researchers say those efforts will take decades to have an effect while the planet continues to warm. States have only recently begun to consider what steps they must take to minimise the damage expected from sea level rise, storm surges, droughts and water shortages because of the climate changes.

Fresh cut flowers are the flagship export of Kenya, making Billions of Shillings a year for the economy. But a global recession and climate chaos have started to diminish earnings. So far this year earnings from exports have fallen by 35 percent on last year according to the Fresh Produce Exporters Association of Kenya.

Most of the exported flowers, over 80 percent, are bought by Europe. Half of those are purchased by flower lovers in the UK. However demand for flowers in the recession has dipped by around 25 percent as the European market has reduced spending on luxury items. An unusually cold winter also kept flower lovers indoors as freezing temperatures swept throughout Europe.

“Statistics from Kenya Flower Council show earnings took a knock from 13.36 billion shillings (191.8 million dollars) in the first three months of the year to 10.76 billion shillings (13.68 million dollars).” According to Google

But credit crunch is not the only problem facing Kenya’s flowers exports. The flower sector is also feeling the heat of Global warming. A prolong dry spell last year caused rising concerns for the future as many farms suffered major water shortages. In some places rainfall was below 30 percent of its normal levels.

Around 1,200 jobs have already been lost so far this year as a result of the decline. There are fears a larger drop in flowers revenue would damage East Africa’s largest economy, as a massive 23 percent of its GDP comes from Horticulture exports.

The LA Times recently reported that a warming Australian climate could be a “harbinger of change” to the rest of the world. What scientists say we have ahead of us if global warming is not prevented, such as Severe droughts and Fires, are already rife in Australia as climate change warms their already hot environment.

Climate scientists warn that Australia: condemned by prolonged drought and increasingly deadly bush fires in the south, monsoon flooding and mosquito inflicted fevers in the north, declining wildlife population, collapse of agriculture and killer heat waves, epitomizes the “accelerated climate crisis” that global warming models have forecast.

“Australia is the harbinger of change. The problems for us are going to be greater. The cost to Australia from climate change is going to be greater than for any developed country. We are already starting to see it. It’s tearing apart the life support system that gives us this world.” Claims paleontologist Tim Flannery, one of Australia’s most vocal climate spectators.

Many Australians feel they already have a death toll connected directly to climate change. 173 people died in the countries worst ever wildfires in February 2009. A royal commission has been called upon to decide weather global warming contributed to the savage bush fires that destroyed whole towns and a quarter of Victoria’s wildlife. A further 200 people died in a heatwave a week before the fires, that saw 4 days of temperatures at 110 degrees and higher as well as 100mph winds. The heat buckled the steel structure on a new 400 foot Ferris wheel and warped train tracks. On the hottest day, more than 4,000 gray headed flying foxes dropped dead out of trees in a Melbourne park.

“Something is happening in Australia. Global warming is no longer some future event that we don’t have to worry about for decades. What we have seen in the past two weeks moves Australia’s exposure to global warming to emergency status.” Said firefighter Dan Condon of the Melbourne Metropolitan Fire Brigade in an open letter.

Australia is not an innocent party on global warming. 80% of its electricity still comes from Coal power stations.  Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says climate change is high on his agenda, but many here are disappointed by his pledge to cut overall greenhouse gas emissions by only 5% by 2020. All eyes will be on Australia in the coming years. It may well show a bleak future for the rest of us, unless we act now to prevent further global warming.

Climate change is already responsible for 300,000 deaths a year according to former UN secretary general Kofi Annan’s think tank, the Global Humanitarian Forum. The report also claims that a further 300 Million people a year are effected by climate change.

A warming climate means more energy. Energy that is released in events like heatwaves, forest fires and floods, making them more severe.

The Study projects that the increasing severity of events like flooding and storms will be responsible for around 500,000 deaths a year by 2030, making it the biggest humanitarian crisis the world faces. Climate change is currently causing losses of more than $125bn a year, more than the total of world aid last year. Projections say that by 2030, it could be costing up to $600bn a year.

Civil unrest may also increase because of weather-related events, the report says: “Four billion people are vulnerable now and 500m are now at extreme risk. Weather-related disasters bring hunger, disease, poverty and lost livelihoods. They pose a threat to social and political stability”.

If emissions are not brought under control, within 25 years, the report states that; 310m more people will suffer adverse health consequences related to temperature increases; 20m more people will fall into poverty and 5m extra people will be displaced by climate change. Water supplies are expected to see a severe impact. ”Shortages in future are likely to threaten food production, reduce sanitation, hinder economic development and damage ecosystems. It causes more violent swings between floods and droughts. Hundreds of millions of people are expected to become water stressed by climate change by the 2030. ”

The study says it is impossible to be certain who will be displaced by 2030, but that tens of millions of people “will be driven from their homelands by weather disasters or gradual environmental degradation. The problem is most severe in Africa, Bangladesh, Egypt, coastal zones and forest areas.”

It seems the hole in the O-Zone layer, created by CFCs and other ozone-depleting chemicals have given the South Pole respite from global warming. But only temporarily according to the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).

In the North Pole, Arctic sea ice is decreasing fast, reaching a record low in 2007. But satellite images studied by John Turner and the BAS show that Antarctic sea ice is increasing in every month of the year expect January.

“By the end of the century we expect one third of Antarctic sea ice to disappear, So we’re trying to understand why it’s increasing now, at a time of global warming.”

In a new study, Turner and colleagues show how the ozone hole has changed weather patterns around Antarctica. These changes have drawn in warm air over the Antarctic Peninsula in West Antarctica and cooled the air above East Antarctica.

“Over the next 50 to 100 years, the ozone hole will heal, At the same time, greenhouse gases will rise. In next decade or so we should see sea ice plateauing and then decreasing massively if greenhouse gases continue to increase.”

Research earlier this year showed that temperatures in East Antarctica had dropped despite Antarctica as a whole seeing an increase of 0.5°C over the last 50 years. This has been used by Climate Change Deniers as “evidence” against global warming, and in fact claiming that we are experience “global cooling”. Unfortunately this new research marks another win for science over spin.